October 12, 2003

The Philippine STAR, Opinion Page

The Political Roadmap 

By Babe Romualdez

Since GMA announced her candidacy last weekend, as predicted, things are starting to fall into place. Dust has settled and the political roadmap is beginning to clear up. Business groups are obviously happy about it, the sense of certainty is important if we are to go to the next stage – the campaign season. No doubt the coming presidential elections will be the single most important decision this country will make within this decade. One must admit, the “equity of the incumbent,” the resources and machinery of the largest political party in the country, and whether we like it or not, the coming Bush visit will all play a major role in ensuring a good start for GMA. 

Since 1986, she will be the only leader who has the unique advantage of running as an incumbent president. Her “change of mind” may be viewed by some as a setback to her candidacy, but just the same, it can be easily overlooked. People have the right to change their minds, and I guess, most especially women, as George Bush reportedly told her. I was told, Bush will offer his “Ode to Gloria” in his state dinner speech for her achievements, most especially in the fight against terrorism and being a close friend and ally of the United States. One could almost look at this as an endorsement of some sort, although not formally. There may be some in the White House and in the National Security Adviser’s Office and even in the Pentagon who are not too keen about the Philippines because of military corruption issues, but they are just a small minority. We can already consider Bush as a “majority vote” in himself because of his special liking for GMA. Washington continues to recognize the Philippines as an important ally in this part of the world. 

The only other candidate so far that has shown promise is Raul Roco. He started out strongly, but people believe he does not have the political machinery to back up his campaign. On the other hand, there are rumors that taipan Lucio Tan is backing him up financially. The real stumbling block for the administration candidate could be the darling-of-the-surveys Noli de Castro, whom the powerful and wealthy Lopez clan is thinking of pushing for president in 2004. There’s a strong possibility the united opposition might consider him as its candidate. But the really big roadblock for GMA is if Noli de Castro teams up with Loren Legarda, and there are people already brokering this deal. There’s no question that Loren Legarda would be a very good running mate. I have known her for a long time, back during the days of broadcasting and advertising. She is definitely a hardworking woman, one who knows what she wants and does what she needs to do. It’s unfair to say that she is being too ambitious just because she’s gunning for a higher office. 

There is a clamor for young blood nowadays, and if ever there were people who can offer fresh ideas and a new vision for the country, one of them would be Loren. She is the classic mix of beauty and brains and I have no doubt in my mind that she could serve the country well in a higher position. A Noli de Castro-Loren Legarda tandem is really something Lakas should seriously worry about. The only problem is, some analysts say, is that if Noli chooses to run and wins, it might precipitate a classic class war between the rich and the poor. On the other hand, to borrow a quote from Melanie Marquez, we cannot simply judge Noli because “he is not a book” -- Translation: Noli de Castro is not what most of his detractors picture him to be. I personally know Noli from our broadcasting days. He’s street smart, and has a certain charm similar to Erap that could draw the masa with no effort at all. But what is really important about Noli (and this could serve as a clear warning sign to the upper crust of society) is why the masses will choose him or Fernando Poe, Jr. “Wala namang nagawa  para sa amin yang mga nasa itaas. Kay Noli o kay FPJ, may pag-asa pa kami…” I have spoken to a number of people with the same classic answer. 

That’s why I keep on stressing that people of power and influence have this last chance to make a difference for the over 25 million people who are now living below the poverty line, and the number is growing with a mind-boggling ratio of four babies per minute. This is the reason why many Western governments are saying, “Why should we help the Philippines when they don’t even want to help themselves.” No one doubts this will eventually explode sooner than later if the problem is not addressed today. That’s why candidates should face the music and deal with the issue of population head on. I and many people believe that this is our last chance.

Ping Lacson may have some difficulty in his campaign because of the Kuratong Baleleng case that’s hanging over his head. From all indications, our friend Danding Cojuangco, who has been reluctant since the day his followers asked him to run for president, will eventually drop the idea of running in 2004. He has always said that if he runs, he has no choice but to use his own resources without any assurance of winning. He would rather concentrate on his business and support any administration that will push for a parliamentary system of government. He really believes that a working parliament is where he could serve more effectively. That’s why a deal has been struck between Lakas and NPC to push for a parliamentary form of government. The “Joker is wild” when he said that the deal had something to do with San Miguel. The Lakas-NPC agreement is a perfectly legitimate political deal.

GMA should now consolidate her forces and reach out to all sectors of society if she wants a fresh mandate. Our country is moving but only on inertia, and the Plague of Ps – population, poverty and politics – continue to weigh us down. Perhaps, another P – the platform for GMA is the change to a parliamentary form of government. But at the end of the road, no matter how clear the political roadmap is, if we take the wrong turn, it will certainly be difficult to make a U-turn. We may all end up falling off the cliff. 

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